Washington, D.C. (January 1, 2009) -- Well, the New Year is here and I've already made nine predictions for High-Definition in 2009, including $99 Blu-ray players and an end to Internet TV services Vudu and Apple TV and retailer Circuit City.
I also predicted that the Digital TV transition will create a ratings hardship for local TV stations with many viewers deciding not to participate in the switch due to its confusing nature.
So, do I have any more predictions for 2009?
Yes!
My crystal ball is still clear as a bell. So let's start the year with 5 more fearless forecasts for HDTV.
1. DIRECTV Cuts Back On Original Programming
The satcaster this year helped financed the third season of NBC's Friday Night Lights as part of a new effort to offer original programming on the dish. (For its investment, DIRECTV was permitted to show the third season in its entirety before it aired on NBC; the network will begin broadcasting the third season later this month.)
While an episode of FNL reportedly was viewed by roughly 700,000 DIRECTV viewers each week, I predict that the satcaster will not renew its partnership with NBC for a fourth season. In addition, DIRECTV will put the breaks on plans for other original programming partnerships.
Why?
The recession. Like everyone else, DIRECTV needs to tighten the belt and original programming is a luxury that it simply can't afford at this time.
2. The Digital TV Transition Will Be a Disaster
On February 17, 2009, all full-powered local TV stations will switch from analog to digital signals, meaning viewers will need a Digital TV, a converter box or a pay TV service to keep watching television. However, all signs point to a looming disaster when the transition occurs. The government is not ready; millions of viewers aren't ready; and many local stations aren't ready.
I predict that millions of Americans will either choose to stop watching TV entirely or will be unable to watch because of various technical complications with the converter boxes. This will cause many people to complain to their local congressmen, local stations, local media, local everyone.
Voter anger (and media hysteria) will be so intense that Congress will be forced to revisit the transition and try to find a quick fix. But there aren't any quick fixes, which means 2009 will be a terrible year for everyone involved. This transition was poorly conceived and even more poorly executed by the government and the industry. Now, they will have to pay the price for their mistakes.
3. Pay TV Providers Will Gain More Subs
However, some viewers who now get their local signals via off-air antennas will sign up with their local cable operator or a telco or satellite service shortly before the Digital TV transition or shortly thereafter. They will be desperate for a simple way to keep watching TV.
4. Small-Screen Digital TV Sales Will Rise In First Quarter
Likewise, many consumers who are fearful of losing their TV signals will run to their neighborhood store in search of a cheap digital set, preferably one under $500. Consequently, you'll see a significant rise in the sale of 32-inch and even 27-inch Digital TV/HDTVs in the first quarter of the year.
5. DIRECTV and Dish Network Will Merge
Okay, everyone says it can't happen because federal regulators would never approve it. (The FCC rejected a DIRECTV-Dish merger in 2002) But I say it has to happen. Dish Network is losing subs, folks, so it has to do something dramatic -- and soon -- to stay competitive.
While I wouldn't compare Dish to Detroit, the satcaster is in need of a bailout, but not from the feds. Dish needs a partner or a buyer and DIRECTV is the obvious choice. The feds would be irresponsible to reject a satellite merger in this economic environment.
I also predicted that the Digital TV transition will create a ratings hardship for local TV stations with many viewers deciding not to participate in the switch due to its confusing nature.
So, do I have any more predictions for 2009?
Yes!
My crystal ball is still clear as a bell. So let's start the year with 5 more fearless forecasts for HDTV.
1. DIRECTV Cuts Back On Original Programming
The satcaster this year helped financed the third season of NBC's Friday Night Lights as part of a new effort to offer original programming on the dish. (For its investment, DIRECTV was permitted to show the third season in its entirety before it aired on NBC; the network will begin broadcasting the third season later this month.)
While an episode of FNL reportedly was viewed by roughly 700,000 DIRECTV viewers each week, I predict that the satcaster will not renew its partnership with NBC for a fourth season. In addition, DIRECTV will put the breaks on plans for other original programming partnerships.
Why?
The recession. Like everyone else, DIRECTV needs to tighten the belt and original programming is a luxury that it simply can't afford at this time.
2. The Digital TV Transition Will Be a Disaster
On February 17, 2009, all full-powered local TV stations will switch from analog to digital signals, meaning viewers will need a Digital TV, a converter box or a pay TV service to keep watching television. However, all signs point to a looming disaster when the transition occurs. The government is not ready; millions of viewers aren't ready; and many local stations aren't ready.
I predict that millions of Americans will either choose to stop watching TV entirely or will be unable to watch because of various technical complications with the converter boxes. This will cause many people to complain to their local congressmen, local stations, local media, local everyone.
Voter anger (and media hysteria) will be so intense that Congress will be forced to revisit the transition and try to find a quick fix. But there aren't any quick fixes, which means 2009 will be a terrible year for everyone involved. This transition was poorly conceived and even more poorly executed by the government and the industry. Now, they will have to pay the price for their mistakes.
3. Pay TV Providers Will Gain More Subs
However, some viewers who now get their local signals via off-air antennas will sign up with their local cable operator or a telco or satellite service shortly before the Digital TV transition or shortly thereafter. They will be desperate for a simple way to keep watching TV.
4. Small-Screen Digital TV Sales Will Rise In First Quarter
Likewise, many consumers who are fearful of losing their TV signals will run to their neighborhood store in search of a cheap digital set, preferably one under $500. Consequently, you'll see a significant rise in the sale of 32-inch and even 27-inch Digital TV/HDTVs in the first quarter of the year.
5. DIRECTV and Dish Network Will Merge
Okay, everyone says it can't happen because federal regulators would never approve it. (The FCC rejected a DIRECTV-Dish merger in 2002) But I say it has to happen. Dish Network is losing subs, folks, so it has to do something dramatic -- and soon -- to stay competitive.
While I wouldn't compare Dish to Detroit, the satcaster is in need of a bailout, but not from the feds. Dish needs a partner or a buyer and DIRECTV is the obvious choice. The feds would be irresponsible to reject a satellite merger in this economic environment.
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