Washington, D.C. (December 31, 2007) -- The Blu-ray/HD DVD high-def disc format war has reached a stalemate with no winner in sight.

That's the conclusion of an article in today's New York Times.

The newspaper reports that 18 months after the two formats were introduced, neither side appears to be pulling away. Plus, combined player sales have only reached the one million mark.

"What if nobody wins the high-definition DVD format wars? That increasingly looks to be the situation for the next-generation DVD technology, which is available to consumers in two incompatible formats," the article states.

The Times reports that high-def DVD player prices have fallen to under $300 (under $200 for some HD DVD players), but suggests that content will ultimately decide which format consumers choose.

Four major studios now support Blu-ray while two back HD DVD. Warner Bros. is releasing titles in both formats.

"Consumers are usually advised to wait until a clear winner emerges. But if there is a deciding factor, it might be which format has the more compelling movies," the newspaper writes.


Commentary:
The Times article expertly summarizes the obstacles facing the high-def DVD industry. With Blu-ray and HD DVD forces butting heads, most consumers will decide to butt out and play their standard-def DVDs instead.

However, I predict that the studios will simply not stand for this stalemate much longer. The longer it goes on, the more money they will lose.

Consequently, I believe that the studios will push Sony (the biggest Blu-ray supporter) and Toshiba (HD DVD's leading backer) to reach a compromise in 2008 for a single format.

If that compromise is not reached, both player and disc sales will continue to disappoint. And if that occurs, I predict that the studios will take matters into their own hands and invest more time and money into developing other methods of delivering their movies, such as video downloads.

Comment on this article!

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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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