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Update: See reaction from Toshiba below.

News Analysis
Warner Bros. Endorses Blu-ray
The move will be the beginning of the end for HD DVD.
By Swanni
 
Washington, D.C. (January 4, 2008) -- Warner Bros. today said it will endorse Blu-ray exclusively in the high-def format war against HD DVD.

(See commentary below.)

The move, which was
predicted last month by this web site, now gives Blu-ray the exclusive backing of five major studios while HD DVD has just two.

Worse news for HD DVD: Warner releases have been among the format's top sellers. However, the studio said that it will stop releasing films in HD DVD this May. Until now, Warner released movies in both formats.

(Until May, Warner says it will release HD DVD titles
"after a short window following their standard DVD and Blu-ray releases.")

The studio defended its decision today by saying that consumers have demonstrated a preference for Blu-ray over HD DVD. For the past year, Blu-ray titles have outsold HD DVD by a 2-1 margin.

"The window of opportunity for high-definition DVD could be missed if format confusion continues to linger," said Barry Meyer, Warner's chairman and CEO. "We believe that exclusively distributing in Blu-ray will further the potential for mass market success and ultimately benefit retailers, producers, and most importantly, consumers."

Warner's announcement comes less than 72 hours prior to the start of the Consumer Electronics Shows in Las Vegas. The studio had been scheduled to appear at HD DVD's press event on Sunday night.


Commentary:
Warner's decision to endorse Blu-ray will be the beginning of the end of HD DVD. With only two studios releasing films in the format, it's hard to see a large number of consumers buying HD DVD players in the future. There simply won't be enough titles available in stores.

Why did Warner shed its neutrality and endorse Blu-ray?

As I said in my prediction last month, the studios have grown increasingly frustrated with the lagging sales of both high-def DVD players and discs. Confused by the format war, consumers have decided not to embrace the new high-def disc category.

Consequently, Warner decided that the only way to boost sales was to endorse one format over another -- and bring this war to a quick end.

And with four major studios already backing Blu-ray, it was an easy decision to choose Blu-ray. The Warner endorsement now gives Blu-ray a huge advantage over HD DVD.

The question now is: Will other studios follow suit and join Warner in endorsing Blu-ray.

And will Toshiba and Microsoft, the leading backers of the HD DVD format, take this battle to its last drop?

Toshiba issued this comment this evening in response to Warner's decision:

"Toshiba is quite surprised by Warner Bros.' decision to abandon HD DVD in favor of Blu-ray, despite the fact that there are various contracts in place between our companies concerning the support of HD DVD. As central members of the DVD Forum, we have long maintained a close partnership with Warner Bros. We worked closely together to help standardize the first-generation DVD format as well as to define and shape HD DVD as its next-generation successor.

We were particularly disappointed that this decision was made in spite of the significant momentum HD DVD has gained in the US market as well as other regions in 2007. HD DVD players and PCs have outsold Blu-ray in the US market in 2007.

We will assess the potential impact of this announcement with the other HD DVD partner companies and evaluate potential next steps. We remain firm in our belief that HD DVD is the format best suited to the wants and needs of the consumer."

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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.


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